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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.